France's real estate on the mend

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I spent a few days in France this week – work and pleasure, mixed – and realised that the country is perhaps something of an unsung hero of the real estate recession. It has suffered of course. I was in the Luberon, part of Provence, about two hours inland from Marseille. The rural idyll had plenty of homes lingering on the market for more than a year thanks to a drop in overseas buyers. Go into Marseille itself and there has been a visible increase in the vacancy rate of commercial property.

But the severity of the downturn, in property terms, is less than in much of Europe, and far below that of north America and parts of Asia. The figures prove the point.

The French commercial market was static in the first quarter of 2009, showing no price changes nor drop off in transactions, after two years of valuation declines and reducing numbers of sales and rentals. But three big deals in the second quarter of 2009 show things may be on the mend.

In the spring, a major Paris retail outlet at Rue du Faubourt Honore was purchased by a prominent French store chain for just above €103 million (Dh555m); in the summer a German firm snapped up offices in Lyon for €40m; now another Parisian store, in the famous Boulevard Haussmann, has been bought for more than €50m.

By the standards of 2006, these acquisitions would be unexceptional, but by the standards of 2007 and 2008, they are bordering on the miraculous.

I am not painting an overly optimistic picture here. The French market is still in tough times and funds are still in distress – the country's SCPI investment funds recorded only €123.5m in foreign investment in the first half of 2009, a drop of 76 per cent on the €513m for the same period a year earlier. But the market is improving and with the wider economy of France now formally out of recession, commercial realtors report dramatically increased international interest in recent months.

The residential picture is similarly optimistic. France's mainstream housing market has not witnessed the sharp downturn seen in the UK and many other nations, mainly because its mortgage lending practices have been far more restrictive.

FNAIM, the French estate agents' association, reckoned earlier this year that central Paris property values would fall eight per cent in 2009 while commuter areas on the outskirts of the French capital would drop 12 per cent. Both now look to have been overly-pessimistic, as were predictions that there would be 14 per cent drops in the south-east and Île de France, and nine per cent in the north, east and south-west. From my own experience this week, talking to agents and developers, most falls are far smaller and some areas are holding their prices steady.

Foreign buyers for holiday homes are still down in number – the strength of the euro against the pound and the dollar is to blame for this, more than the downturn. But even in this sector, perhaps the most vulnerable to recessionary caution, things are improving.

"It really is a buyer's market and while supply outstrips demand it will remain so. French banks are much more flexible with their lending now and are offering much more choice of products that before," he explained.

An examination of statistics from Notaires shows that is French buyers who are set to lead the property market recovery although 50 per cent of current foreign buyers are still British. Leggett said his offices have seen a huge increase in appointments and enquires in August, which is usually a quiet month.

 

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